Question: Should I buy now or should I wait until prices come down?
The correct answer is buy when the timing is right for you instead of trying to time the market. Here's why.
Money is cheap today. In 1981 it was up to 18 percent. Do you feel interest rates are going to go up?
David Lereah, NARs chief economist, said mortgage interest rates are trending up but will remain favorable.He expects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to rise to 6.9 percent by the end of the year.- RISMEDIA.com, January 12, 2007
I also believe the answer is yes, so don't make a decision about buying your home simply based on the price of the home. Look at several things including interest rates, tax benefits of owning your home and your abilities to make the payments. Look at the big picture. Here is an example using basic figures without looking deep at the tax benefits.
1. You buy a home and have a loan balance of $600,000 at 6%. Your monthly payment is about $3597.
2. You wait a few months or a year or two for home prices to decline 5% making the sales price become $570,000 and you pay 7% interest. Your monthly payment is about $3792. You're already behind on your monthly payment by $200.
3. You wait for home prices to decline 10% making the sales price become $540,000 and you pay 7%. Your monthly payment is about $3592...almost where you would be today.
How much did you pay in rent in the meantime and what were the tax benefits that you missed out on? What about your family's well-being. Where would they be happy? Family health is many times over-looked!
Taxes: Most of your house payment is interest (%). Most people can "write-off" this amount. This amount is usually several thousand dollars!
Now you can see why home ownership is so important and why our question is a "no brainer".
I'll be happy to help you get educated about your goal and when you're ready to buy your home, you'll be much more prepared to make the right decisions for you. I'm here to help...
Curious about how much homes have dropped. When you look at the over-all picture, it's little different than you may think - here are the facts, let's look at Alameda County? It's very little from 2005 - 2006 - 2007 (today) per Bayeast MLS - Click here to go to all stats - check the city you are interested in.
Median Sales Price
Castro Valley
Dublin
Fremont
Hayward
Livermore
Newark
Pleasanton
San Leandro
San Lorenzo
Union City
Total
Nov-06
$624,000
$724,900
$677,500
$582,500
$650,000
$610,000
$782,500
$563,000
$570,000
$655,000
$638,000
Dec-06
$654,857
$700,000
$685,000
$612,500
$657,000
$635,000
$785,000
$570,000
$563,500
$655,000
$654,950
Jan-07
$627,500
$734,444
$665,000
$583,500
$665,500
$637,500
$750,000
$550,000
$533,500
$735,000
$650,000
Jan-06
$650,000
$769,500
$700,000
$595,000
$645,000
$661,000
$832,500
$565,000
$550,000
$680,000
$659,000
Jan-05
$601,750
$690,000
$625,000
$515,000
$558,250
$560,500
$759,000
$523,000
$495,500
$595,000
$585,000
YTD-07
$627,500
$734,444
$665,000
$583,500
$665,500
$637,500
$750,000
$550,000
$533,500
$735,000
$650,000
YTD-06
$650,000
$769,500
$700,000
$595,000
$645,000
$661,000
$832,500
$565,000
$550,000
$680,000
$659,000
YTD-05
$601,750
$690,000
$625,000
$515,000
$558,250
$560,500
$759,000
$523,000
$495,500
$595,000
$585,000
if you look at the 2005-2007 averages, you will see that the 2007 is showing almost no change and reflecting a bottoming out regarding prices. Basically, why are you still waiting??
Here is a couple of helpful links to get started...
Buyer's "Start Page" this is the best Buyer page at the site!
HERE'S WHAT FORBES.COM SAYS
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Portfolio Strategy Housing Boom or Bust! Kenneth L. Fisher 02.26.07, 12:00 AM ET
Don't buy it. For months now the debate has been over whether America will have a hard landing or soft landing, the answer hinging on how big 2007's housing disaster turns out to be. Well, there won't be any housing disaster. We won't have a landing at all, soft or hard. Right now the U.S. and global economies are both accelerating.
You can see right through the housing crash story by looking at the prices of housing stocks. The market knows what the economic worrywarts do not, which is that the housing sector is already making a comeback. In the last six months housing stocks are up 24%, well ahead of the overall market. If housing were destined to fall apart in 2007 these stocks wouldn't be so strong now.
Did you know that housing sales are up in the last few months, not down, and that inventories are lower than six months ago? We're accelerating, not landing. This is true not just in housing but also pretty much across the board.
The consensus forecast is for single-digit S&P 500 earnings growth tied to a slowing economy. Disbelieve it. Experts' forecasts have been too low for four years and will be now. First, the accelerating economy will deliver earnings that exceed expectations. Second, the analysts polled for these consensus numbers never factor in the effect of corporate purchases of stock for cash. Whether a company is buying in its own shares or taking over another company, the acquisition of equity stakes (if done cheaply enough) raises earnings per share.
Not since the late 1950s have sustained fundamentals (low long-term interest rates and low price/earnings ratios) so strongly favored corporations shrinking equity. My firm's count of last year's buybacks and takeovers, less new stock issuance, was $585 billion, or 4.5% of gross domestic product. That will be even higher in 2007 as more players learn this game.
Along with sales growth comes productivity growth. Companies are hiring but not in proportion to the gains in their top lines. The result is higher productivity, which feeds into rising profits and living standards. The Federal Reserve probably won't cut interest rates soon, but it doesn't need to. The economy is humming along without any artificial boost.
This is a time to own stocks. Here are some companies that will participate in the prosperous economy of 2007:
Home builder Pulte Homes (nyse: PHM - news - people ) (34, PHM) is the second-largest U.S. homebuilder and in the top five in three-fourths of the largest markets. But its stock has lagged recently. At 11 times 2007 earnings and 60% of annual sales it's far too cheap.
If the hysteria over the housing pullback has taken a toll on your courage, try Toll Brothers (nyse: TOL - news - people ) (34,TOL). It's half of Pulte's size, more expensive (per dollar of earnings) but less risky. It's the largest vendor serving the affluent end of the housing market, where qualifying for a mortgage is less of a hurdle. It sells at 19 times depressed earnings that will bounce back by 2008.
Yet another builder worth owning is Beazer Homes (nyse: BZH - news - people ) (44, BZH). At $5.5 billion in sales it's the same size as Toll but offers both more potential reward and more risk. It focuses on the Southeast and West Coast, which evoke fears of overbuilt condo markets. Beazer shares fell 35% last year, putting them at 30% of annual sales and 18 times depressed earnings. Too cheap for a well-managed company like this one.
Oil may rise, oil may fall. Either way you can win with a pair of stocks ideally bought in tandem. One is the Norwegian energy company Statoil (nyse: STO - news - people ) (27, STO). What's keeping the shares cheap? Investor misgivings about the holder of a 71% stake (the Norwegian government), the company's recent purchase of Norsk Hydro (nyse: NHY - news - people )'s energy business and regulatory issues delaying the startup of new projects. But this is a good company, soon to be the world's largest producer of offshore oil and gas. It's cheap at 10 times likely 2007 earnings and 90% of annual sales.
But falling oil prices help U.S. fertilizer maker Agrium (nyse: AGU - news - people ) (35, AGU). Its product line is boring--ammonium nitrate, phosphate and potassium fertilizers. A stronger corn planting this year could boost revenue. Still, no one sees this company as a reverse energy play. It takes a lot of energy to mine potash and phosphates; the nitrogen fertilizers come from natural gas. Falling prices for oil and natural gas will help Agrium more than they will hurt it by depressing the demand for corn ethanol (and thus for corn fertilizers).
Buy Statoil and Agrium together. Your mini-hedge fund should do well no matter which way oil goes.
Kenneth L. Fisherresides in California - (talking about California)
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